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Some high-profile targets aren't equally vulnerable as you might think.

All across New York, key congressional races are shaping upward.

The North Country'due south Rep. Elise Stefanik, a target of the national progressive movement eager to accept down Republican incumbents in the upcoming election, gained a Democratic challenger and lost two others terminal week. Sometime MSNBC host Dylan Ratigan hopped into the Democratic primary, and the departures of Tanya Boone and Sara Idleman left the field a little less crowded.

In Western New York, Republican firebrand Rep. Chris Collins also initially faced a raft of progressive challengers, simply equally of this month there are now just two Autonomous candidates left , Nick Stankevich and Nathan McMurray, who has received the endorsement of the district's 8 county chairs.

But despite the winnowed roster of Democrats eager to take them downwards, neither Stefanik nor Collins' seats are rated every bit vulnerable by the Cook Political Study , Sabato's Crystal Ball or Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzalez/Roll Call , which analyze competitive races and political trends. All the same, there are several New York districts that are currently in play or may become more competitive. Here is a guide to the races to sentry.

DEMOCRATS

Rep. Thomas Suozzi

Cook: Likely Democratic

Sabato: Likely Democratic

Ringlet Call: Solid Autonomous

Suozzi'southward commune encompasses the n shore of Long Isle, including parts of Nassau and Suffolk counties and Queens. But while the previous holder of Suozzi'south seat, Rep. Steve Israel, was able to keep his district for sixteen years, the freshman lawmaker may confront a challenge in 2018. GOP opponent Dan DeBono counts Robert and Diana Mercer, prominent Republican donors, as two of his supporters . Suozzi is also facing a primary challenge from Josh Sauberman , who appears to be trying to outflank him on the left. However, Suozzi far outpaces his opponents in terms of greenbacks on hand . Suozzi has over $1 million in campaign funds, while DeBono has just over $100,000 and Sauberman has a fiddling over $i,000.

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney

Melt: Probable Democratic

Sabato: Probable Democratic

Gyre Call: Solid Democratic

The Hudson Valley Democrat was listed by the National Republican Congressional Committee last twelvemonth as a candidate it believes is vulnerable in the 2018 elections, along with Suozzi. All the same, Maloney has over $ii one thousand thousand in cash on hand . Sakima Brown, a Republican who as well ran in 2016 with Mercer support , has filed with the Federal Elections Commission for the 2018 election. She has a lilliputian over $38,000 in greenbacks on mitt. NYPD Officer Jarred Buchanan and Orange Canton Legislator James O'Donnell are also running on the Republican line.

REPUBLICANS

Rep. John Faso

Cook: Toss-up

Sabato: Toss-upwardly

Curl Call: Tilt Republican

The Republican easily dispatched Zephyr Teachout in the 2016 election, simply may face more of a challenge as he seeks a second term in 2018. There are several Democratic candidates vying for Faso's seat, including Gareth Rhodes , a one-time staffer for Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who recently signed on prominent communications firm Metropolitan Public Strategies to guide his campaign. Mayhap feeling the pressure of a potential Democratic wave election, Faso has recently diverged from the Republican line, every bit he voted against the Republican tax plan passed last twelvemonth and recently announced his support for raising the age at which a person tin buy guns to 21. Faso's campaign state of war breast is also outmatched by two of his Democratic challengers. He currently has over $700,000 in greenbacks on manus , whereas Antonio Delgado has over $1 one thousand thousand and Brian Flynn has over $970,000. Other Democratic candidates include Patrick Ryan, David Clegg and Jeffrey Beals. Erstwhile "Police force and Lodge: Special Victims Unit" actress Diane Neal launched an contained bid before this month.

Rep. Claudia Tenney

Cook: Toss-upwardly

Sabato: Toss-up

Roll Call: Tilt Republican

Tenney made news this calendar month for saying that many mass shooters "end up existence Democrats," drawing scrutiny to her connection with the NRA and history as a gun rights advocate. Tenney seems to be following President Donald Trump'south playbook of doubling down , blaming "liberals and the media" for politicizing her comments. FiveThirtyEight reports that Tenney votes in line with Trump'due south positions 97 percent of the time. She is in a heated race with Democratic Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi, and a September poll found that Brindisi had a slim lead over Tenney. Brindisi besides raised more than Tenney in the last months of 2017, and has over $580,000 in greenbacks on paw compared to the incumbent's $573,000.

Rep. Dan Donovan

Melt: Lean Republican

Sabato: Probable Republican

Ringlet Telephone call: Likely Republican

Donovan is facing a challenge from the man he replaced, former Rep. Michael Grimm. Grimm stepped downwards in 2015 after pleading guilty to felony tax fraud and was sentenced to eight months in prison. Apparently assuming that Staten Island voters love a improvement, Grimm launched his entrada to retake his seat in October, receiving support from unconventional backers like former Trump strategist Steve Bannon. Donovan is besides facing a formidable Democratic challenger in Max Rose, a military veteran and activist who is receiving national Democratic back up . Donovan and Rose take been reeling in big campaign donations, and both were amid the acme New York congressional candidates that received the nearly money in the final quarter of 2018. Donovan currently has over $700,000 in greenbacks on hand , while Rose has nigh $500,000. But before Rose can confront Donovan – or Grimm – he must win a crowded primary. Other Democratic candidates include Omar Vaid, who has built a strong following on social media, Boyd Melson, Radhakrishna Mohan, Zach Emig, Michael DeVito and Mike DeCillis.

Rep. Lee Zeldin

Cook: Probable Republican

Sabato: Probable Republican

Roll Call: Solid Republican

Like Tenney, Zeldin has embraced Trump, although he did vote against the tax plan and the most recent budget bill. Zeldin also has ties to Bannon . He is facing a few Democratic challengers, including private equity executive Perry Gershon, who only recently moved to the commune. Zeldin has also been fundraising heavily, and currently has over $1 million in cash on hand , compared to Gershon's $800,000. Other Autonomous candidates include term-limited Suffolk Canton Legislator Kate Browning , erstwhile canton Legislator Vivian Viloria Fisher , David Pechefsky, Elaine DiMasi and Brendon Henry.

Rep. John Katko

Cook: Likely Republican

Sabato: Likely Republican

Gyre Call: Likely Republican

Event though Hillary Clinton won Katko's district in the 2016 election, he has voted in line with Trump'southward policy positions 91 per centum of the time. Even so, Democrats haven't been able to field strong challengers in this swing district. Former Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner declined to run against Katko, and his declared challengers lag behind in fundraising. Katko currently has over $1 million in greenbacks on hand . His Democratic challengers include Anne Messenger , who has over $37,000 in her campaign coffers, and Syracuse University professor Dana Balter, who recently won the endorsement of Onandaga County Democrats.

Rep. Tom Reed

Cook: Non listed

Sabato: Probable Republican

Curl Phone call: Solid Republican

Although Reed's seat is likely safe, the moderate Republican and co-chairman of the bipartisan Problem Solvers caucus may exist in danger because of his agile role in promoting the Republican tax overhaul. Reed helped craft the compromise that kept the land and local property tax deduction in the beak, but capped information technology at $10,000. He is facing a raft of Democratic challengers, simply Reed has over $1 million in cash on manus and is in a commune that supported Trump in the 2016 election. Democrat Linda Andrei has raised the second highest amount of whatsoever candidate in the commune, with over $100,000 in greenbacks on hand. Other Democrats include Edward Sundquist, Max Della Pia, Ian Aureate, Rick Gallant and Tracy Mitrano. Some other candidate, Charles Whalen, recently suspended his campaign.

Correction: An earlier version of this post had the incorrect proper noun of a candidate running against Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney. The candidate is Orange County Legislator James O'Donnell.

Source: https://nynmedia.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/new-yorks-most-competitive-congressional-races.html

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